Election Day: Will low turnout spell trouble for Dems in November?
Please note: This article is published as an archive copy from Philadelphia City Paper. My City Paper is not affiliated with Philadelphia City Paper. Philadelphia City Paper was an alternative weekly newspaper in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The last edition was published on October 8, 2015.
The two voters I did run into were another reporter and a public defender.
My first post today is from the Gold Standard Cafe at 48th and Baltimore Avenue. It's the 17th Division of the 46th Ward, and the place where I vote.
Turnout is typically lousy.
Minority Inspector Ryan Godfrey (a former City Paper webmaster) tells me that 64 people have voted so far. He anticipates a turnout of about 25 percent. And that could be much higher than other parts of the city. This neighborhood, full of activists, teachers, and non-profit workers, is politically engaged.
The two voters I did run into were another reporter and a public defender.
"It's not looking good right now," says Majority Inspector Todd Kovich. "It could change. People could come back after work."
Asked about citywide trends, Republican City Commissioner Al Schmidt says that it's too early to tell.
"It's really difficult to predict," he says, adding that the election is running smoothly so far. "We haven't had much in the way of problems, as in election board problems, or minority inspectors being seated, or machine problems."
Schmidt says that "the only thing that really has an impact on turnout in Philadelphia is action in the majority party," meaning the Democratic Party. Case in point: it was a record 32 percent Philadelphia turnout in 2002 that helped Ed Rendell win the gubernatorial primary over Bob Casey. Rendell went on to defeat Republican Mike Fisher in the general election.See Schmidt's recent report on voter turnout here.
In 2010, when Dan Onorato won the Democratic primary, city turnout was just 19 percent. He went on to lose the general election to Republican Tom Corbett. A small but energized Tea Party wave swept over an otherwise sleepy electorate — and proved devastating for Democrats. But Philadelphia's turnout in Rendell and Onorato's general elections were similiar—turnout began to fall precipitously in the 1970s and remains low.
The prospect of defeating Corbett will likely draw far more voters to the polls in November. But if the Democrats hope to win in November, their candidate will have to do a much better job generating enthusiasm in Philly voters.
