If Dems flip state Senate, it will be with these five seats
Please note: This article is published as an archive copy from Philadelphia City Paper. My City Paper is not affiliated with Philadelphia City Paper. Philadelphia City Paper was an alternative weekly newspaper in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The last edition was published on October 8, 2015.
via Flickr/donkeyhotey
Gov. Tom Corbett’s re-election hopes are circling the drain, but Philadelphians hoping to part with Corbett shouldn’t break out the party hats just yet.
Republicans control both chambers in Harrisburg, so a Democratic governor wouldn’t be able to do much unless party control changes in at least one of them. The Senate, which the Republicans control 27-23, is the chamber more likely to change hands. To take control, the Democrats would need to flip these seats:
+ SD-26: John Kane vs. Tom McGarrigle
Republican Edwin Erickson’s retirement at the end of this session handed Democrats their most likely pick-up of the 2014 cycle.
Democrat John Kane, business manager for Plumbers Union Local 690, will face Republican Tom McGarrigle, the Delaware County Council chairman, for this seat covering parts of Delaware and Chester counties.
Based on the recent performance of statewide candidates in this district, any Democrat carries a 3-point advantage to win, even before other factors, such as personality and fundraising, are factored in. And Kane’s $267,000 first quarter fundraising haul won’t hurt either.
+ SD-16: Walt Felton vs. Pat Browne
Incumbent Pat Browne is the Republican majority whip, and he has held this seat covering parts of urban Allentown and the Lehigh County suburbs since 2005. He’s a well-known moderate. But whipping Corbett’s priorities through the Senate may have taken a toll on Brown’s popularity in a district that favors Democrats by 4 points.
Browne’s challenger, Walt Felton, has served as an Allentown police officer for 21 years, and previously ran unsuccessfully in a close race for district judge in 2009. He attracts a lot of volunteers for races in Allentown — an asset in a low-turnout midterm election. Whether that’s enough to overcome Browne’s name recognition and $250,000 cash-on-hand remains to be seen.
+ SD-6: Kimberly Rose vs. Tommy Tomlinson
In the 2010 redistricting, Republican Tommy Tomlinson’s 6th Senate District in Bucks County was redrawn, and it now favors a generic Democrat by 4 points.
Tomlinson is being challenged by Kimberly Rose, a chiropractor and small-business owner who was first elected to public office as a Northampton Township supervisor in 2011.
Tomlinson, 68, who has held the seat since 1995, is sitting on $117,000.
He was expected to retire after this session, but he surely faced strong pressure to run again since his incumbency advantage offers Republicans their best chance of holding onto this seat in an increasingly liberal-leaning Bucks County.
+ SD-40: Scott Parsons vs. Mario Scavello
This seat moved from Allegheny County to Monroe County in the 2010 redistricting, and Republican Mario Scavello is considered the favorite to win it, with $284,000 in cash-on-hand.
The makeup of this electorate favors Democrats by 1 point. That party has a good candidate in Scott Parsons, a Northampton County councilman. Parsons served for 10 years on Wind Gap Borough Council, and has experience running against Republicans in unfriendly terrain. In 2011, he won his rural conservative-leaning seat on Council against eccentric, well-funded, conservative incumbent Ron Angle during the high-water mark of Tea Party power.
+ SD-12: Ruth Damsker vs. Stewart Greenleaf
Stewart Greenleaf is another incumbent Republican who was expected to retire this year. Greenleaf, 74, has held this seat since 1979. Retirement rumors swirled as Greenleaf raised only $78 in 2013, but he still has a war chest of more than $235,000.
The district favors a generic Republican by 1 point, Greenleaf has strong incumbency advantages and a moderate reputation that so far has withstood objections that he voted for all of Corbett’s education-slashing budgets and a de facto ban on private-insurance coverage for abortions.
Challenger Ruth Damsker served as a Montgomery County commissioner from 1999 to 2007. Local media tend to closely cover Montco politics, so Damsker has some name recognition. With Greenleaf laboring under the weight of Corbett’s negative coattails, she might just get lucky.
