Philly voter turnout seems to be higher than usual for mid-term elections

Early reports indicate that voting is up across Philadelphia today, but whether the overall turnout will stay above normal  for a mid-term election remains to be seen.

"Anecdotally, I hear that some divisions are really busy," said City Commissioner Al Schmidt.

Schmidt, a Republican, cautioned that his staffers don't track voter turnout numbers on election day – they are too busy fixing problems and ensuring the election runs smoothly. Schmidt also noted that the one number he does already have, absentee ballots, is down this year: only 3,600 absentees this yrear compared to 4,800 in 2010, the last mid-term and gubernatorial election. "That could be a leading indicator [of turnout today]."

Voter turnout in Philadelphia in 2010 was 41%. It was 62.8% during the 2012 presidential election.

Still, most divisions interviewed this afternoon from across the city suggests that turnout is up. Today's weather is unseasonably pleasant for November, which might be helping.

In the 39th Ward in South Philly, judge of elections Vernice Bradley said she had about 60 voters, when she'd expect 40 voters. When asked how long she had been working the polls, she laughed and said, "years."

At a campaign rally event for Tom Wolf, IBEW President John Dougherty reported voter numbers were up across South Philly, where the IBEW and other trade unions are canvassing for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

In the millennial-heavy 30th Ward in Graduate Hospital, voters seem to be showing up, too. Tamar Fox, Democratic committee person in the 30th, reported good numbers: about 20 percent of registered voters already, before the post-work rush. Fox credited antipathy toward the incumbent: "I think people are amped about getting rid of Corbett and I do think that's driving turnout." Fox said.

Elsewhere in the 30th, Matt Olesh, another young Democratic committee person, said that turnout "was pretty good – not presidential-election year good, but better than the typical midterm."

Democratic Committee Person Jon Geeting reported similar numbers in his division, in Bella Vista's 2nd Ward: about 30 percent had shown up as of 2 p.m. (Full disclosure: Geeting is also a columnist for City Paper.)

Geeting attributed the high turnout to a huge chip on city residents' shoulders. "I think Philadelphians have been shaken out of their usual mid-term apathy by an unusual assault on our city from an out-of-control Republican legislature," he said in an email. "We were reminded time and time again for four years that these people hate our guts, and they've been passing the laws to prove it."

In Point Breeze's 36th Ward, Democratic Committee Person Jen Devor also reported high turnout, with about 25 percent showing up so far. Devor credited the "really great" weather in part, and echoed the anti-Corbett, pro-Wolf sentiments of her partisans.

Given that early reports indicate the voting is also up in New Jersey and Delaware, the weather might be the primary factor. Some political experts expected low turnout across the nation, driven in part by the huge amounts of negative advertising spent by super PACs and other outside campaign groups. Negative advertising tends to depress voter turnout by discouraging would-be supporters from making it to the polls to back the targeted candidate. This election was the most expensive mid-term yet, with NPR's "On The Media" reporting nearly $4 billion spent.

If turnout is low elsewhere in the nation, where the weather isn't as amazing as the tri-state area's sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s, we might have our answer. Who knows, maybe the best way of increasing voter turnout in the future would be to move the general election to September?